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By Tiernan Ray
Sanford Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi this morning ponders in a 16-page report the question, Will Tablets Cannibalize Notebooks or might It be the Other Way around?
PC stocks are trading at less than 11 times forward earnings, he notes, reflective of the conventional wisdom, which says tablets will cannibalize personal computers. However, Sacconaghi writes,
The evolution of Apple’s MacBook Air laptop suggests that notebooks and tablets are converging. this convergence is underpinned by several ongoing forces: Increasing adoption of low-power processors and solid state storage; a focus on innovation to drive thinner and lighter form factors; and the prevalence of app stores, including emergence of HTML5 apps.
Sacconaghi concludes that, “In the next 2 – 3 years, we believe OEMs will offer notebooks at the weight of the original iPad with touchscreen and integrated keypad capability for under $1,000.”
And, “Ironically, availability of such notebook devices might undermine tablet sales, rather than vice versa.”
If that comes to pass, there are a couple ways it could play out.
One possible scenario, he suggests, is that the “open architecture” wins, with converged devices using chips based on ARM Holdings (ARMH) designs, Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows 8 operating system, and the HTML5 APIs will prevail, providing a lift for PC OEMs, while cutting Apple’s combined Mac and tablet revenue growth to just 11, compounded, over the next five years, versus his current 25% projection.
On the other hand, if the MacBook Air wins, assuming the iOS “ecosystem” gains a leading share in converged devices, Apple’s compound annual growth could surge to 28%, leaving PC OEMs with single-digit growth.
<a href="http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/07/05/apple-will-converged-devices-doom-the-tablet/?mod=google_news_blogtag:news.google.com,2005:cluster=http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/07/05/apple-will-converged-devices-doom-the-tablet/?mod=google_news_blogTue, 05 Jul 2011 15:07:55 GMT 00:00″>Apple: Will ‘Converged’ Devices Doom The Tablet?
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